The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
Many years during which monsoons were poor saw high returns, while normal or excess rainfall has also coincided with poor calendar year gains.
It's still early days, but the southwest monsoon has been nearly 37 per cent 'below normal' in the first seven days (June 1-7) of this month. According to the data furnished by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), between June 1 and June 7, India received 14.5 millimetres (mm) of rainfall, against a 'normal' 23.1 mm. Among places where rains have arrived, monsoon in Kerala in the first seven days has been 48 per cent 'below normal', while in Puducherry, it has been 56 per cent 'above normal'. In Tamil Nadu, rains were 21 per cent 'above normal' between June 1 and June 7.
Normally, monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27. It covers the entire country by July 8. Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29.
The weather office has issued a forecast of heavy to very heavy rains at isolated places in several districts of Gujarat over the next one week.
The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on May 31, a day earlier than its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
Data spanning the years 1951 to 2014 show that temperature and pressure conditions at specific locations in the Arctic region during the pre-monsoon period correlate with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, points out Charu Bahri.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
The minimum temperature in Delhi was recorded at 28.6 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
A normal monsoon will augur well for the country's agriculture sector and boost crop yields. However, good rains - and surplus crops - could also depress prices, hurting farm income, unless adequate steps are taken.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of rainfall in the country.
'We are not saying we are going to face a drought... We are a doing and performing government. A contingency plan is being prepared,' Science Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan tells Rediff.com
Weather scientists attribute the early onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala to the influence of the remnants of cyclone Asani that triggered the cross-equatorial flow, a key factor for the seasonal rains.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius," the Met department has said in its forecast.
Passenger vehicle dispatches in India from factories to dealers rose to record levels at over 43 lakh units in FY25, with utility vehicles accounting for 65 per cent of the total sales in the segment, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Passenger vehicle (PV) dispatches rose to 43,01,848 units in the last fiscal year, marking a 2 per cent increase compared to 42,18,750 units in FY 2023-24.
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
The Southwest Monsoon usually covers the entire country on July 8. The earlier normal date for the monsoon to cover the entire country was July 15.
IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said the department's modelling indicate formation of a cyclonic storm around May 9, but its movement and intensification may be determined after the low pressure area actually forms on May 7.
Nimrat sings... Raima goes for gold... Tiger shows off...
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Banking and real estate stocks rise up to 5% on further rate-cut hope.
Monsoon rains are expected on time this year, hitting Kerala on June 1.
Intermittent, widespread rains lashed Chennai and other regions of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday and the India meteorological department said the low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has turned into a well-marked low pressure area and it is likely to become a depression.
Sensex sinks into red at close on growth concerns.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
The southwest monsoon, a lifeline to millions of farmers of the country, on Saturday set in over Kerala, two days late than earlier forecast. The monsoon has set in over Kerala, IMD Director B P Yadav said.
It expects rainfall to be about 106 per cent of the long period average, aided by La Nia conditions anticipated to play a role in the second half of the monsoon season.
East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
June 1 is the official onset date of monsoon in India when it hits Kerala.
After becoming active over the rice-growing Indo-Gangetic plains, the southwest monsoon might witness weak phase for the next 3-4 days over the already rain-deficient region. So far, the main deficit states are Uttar Pradesh (-42 per cent), Bihar (-36 per cent), Jharkhand (-48 per cent), and West Bengal (-24 per cent). According to private weather forecasting agency Skymet, rains in west UP, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand are expected to be weak in the next 3-4 days before again picking pace.
The S&P BSE Sensex soared 287 points to end at 26,653.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
Delhi is likely to receive the first monsoon showers on June 30 or July 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Tuesday.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
